Fall auctions: the art market is getting back into shape

The major November evening sales signalled a clear rebound in the art market, with results reminiscent of pre-pandemic years such as 2019. Anchored by several major collections at Christie’s and Sotheby’s, the season was defined by the return of high-quality consignments—and by a high level of activity that extended across all three major houses. In total, New York’s auction week generated roughly $2.2 billion—roughly a +75% increase compared to 2024—, a figure that confirms both renewed confidence and the return of blue-chip trophy consignments.

Across the week, Sotheby’s emerged as the leading house with close to $1.17 billion in total sales, driven in large part by the landmark result for Gustav Klimt’s Bildnis Elisabeth Lederer, sold for $236.3 million with fees—the most expensive work of the week and the second highest auction price ever achieved. Christie’s followed with a total of $965 million across the week and major results of its own, including the second standout of the season: Frida Kahlo’s El sueño (La cama), which achieved $54.7 million and made her the top-selling female artist of the week. In parallel, Sotheby’s additional evening on 20 November—combining the Cindy & Jay Pritzker Collection, the Surrealist Exquisite Corpus Evening Auction ($98.1 million), and the Modern Evening Auction ($96.9 million)—added $304.6 million to the season’s results, reinforcing the breadth and depth of activity across categories. Phillips, meanwhile, contributed $92.1 million to the overall total.

Frida Kahlo, El sueño (La cama), 1940

The season opened in grand fashion at Christie’s New York on 17 November with the sale of eighteen works from the Robert and Patricia Weis Collection, immediately followed by the 20th-century evening sale.

Viewing of the Weis Collection at Christie's headquarters in NYC

Together, these auctions achieved $690 million, far above the $486 million total for the equivalent sales a year ago—an increase of around 42%. Christie’s reached a hammer total of $574.7 million across eighty lots, with seventy-six finding buyers. The low estimate of $540 million was surpassed, supported in part by fifty-five guaranteed lots. The Weis Collection alone, estimated between $182 million and $226 million, realized $218 million, led by Mark Rothko’s No. 31 (Yellow Stripe), which was sold for $62.2 million. The 20th-century sale (excluding the Weis works) achieved $471.7 million against an estimate of $358–$533 million. Meanwhile, the 21st-century sale—which included works from the Edlis/Neeson Collection—totalled $123.6 million, comfortably above its $87.5 million low estimate, with forty-four of forty-five lots sold.

At Sotheby’s, the evening of 18 November—combining The Now & Contemporary Evening Auction with the sale of the Leonard A. Lauder Collection—closed at $706 million, or $605.1 million hammer, surpassing the $522.8–$680.7 million estimate range. With its combined day and evening sales, Sotheby’s ultimately led the week with a total close to $1.17 billion, the strongest performance among the three houses. The Lauder sale was a defining moment. It realized $527.5 million against a $379.2 million low estimate, with 83% of works beating their high estimates. All lots carried guarantees. More than half the total hinged on a single painting: Gustav Klimt’s Bildnis Elisabeth Lederer. As for The Now & Contemporary sale, it achieved $178.5 million (hammer $148.9 million), nearly matching its $148.6 million low estimate. Twenty-four of forty-three lots were guaranteed, and the total marked a 58.9% increase over last year. Rising artists continued to attract energy: Yu Nishimura maintained strong momentum, and Antonio Obá surpassed $1 million, nearly ten times his low estimate. The 1981 Basquiat Crowns (Peso Neto) produced a standout result at $48.3 million.

Jean-Michel Basquiat, Crowns (Peso Neto), 1981

At Phillips, the evening sale brought $67.3 million, an increase of 24.4% over the prior year, with thirty-one of thirty-three lots sold (94% sell-through). Including the Day Sales of 21 November, Phillips managed to reach $92.1 million of sale proceeds. A Basquiat drawing achieved $1.2255 million (estimate $800,000–$1,200,000), confirming a sustained demand for the artist’s works on paper. Martha Jungwirth’s result at $516,000 (estimate $200,000–$300,000) exceeded expectations. Phillips also generated considerable attention with one of the week’s more unconventional lots: a 66-million-year-old Triceratops skeleton, which sold for $5.37 million—well above its low estimate. The sale highlighted how auction houses are increasingly widening their offering to capture cross-category collector interest.

Juvenile Triceratops Skeleton from the Late Cretaceous auctioned at Phillips

Overall, many blue-chip names—both modern and contemporary—had quite good results during this auction week. At Christie’s, for instance, the Christopher Wool from the Edlis/Neeson Collection sold for $19.8 million, reaffirming demand for the artist’s most iconic formats, and leaving some hoping for the artist’s definitive comeback.

Christopher Wool's Untitled (Riot) from 1990, sold for $19.8 million at Christie's

Two Calder mobiles significantly outperformed expectations—one selling for $838,200 (estimate $300,000–$500,000), the other for $825,500 (estimate $600,000–$800,000). Tom Wesselmann’s stripped down painting Sunset Nude (Big Scene) saw a strong result at $1.155 million (estimate $500,000–$700,000). Danielle McKinney’s elegant 2023 painting Bordeaux soared to $279,400 (estimate $50,000–$70,000), while Salman Toor continued his upward trajectory with his emotional painting The Green Bar from 2018 reaching $520,700 (with an estimate of $80,000–$120,000). A modest Lucas Arruda painting—definitely not his best picture—nevertheless reached $317,500, far above its high estimate of $100,000. On the other hand, a few artists performed at lower levels than what could have been expected. A colorless drawing by George Condo drawing, for instance, achieved $95,250, and the colorful Condo painting Abstract Conversation from the Edlis sale brought $3.4 million against an estimate of $3–$5 million—respectable but somewhat subdued. In the Day Sale, Similarly, the prices reached by Yayoi Kusama works also reflected ongoing selectivity: a small 2014 Infinity Net performed only around its high estimate, while a Pistils and Stamens sold for $317,000 at Sotheby’s, slightly below the high estimate.

George Condo, Abstract Conversation, 2010

However, despite a few lacklustre results here and there, the Fall sales were undeniably positive. Sotheby’s and Christie’s both drastically surpassed their 2023 numbers, while Phillips also grew—though still at a distance from the two giants. To illustrate the scale of the rebound, Sotheby’s total last year for day and evening sales combined stood at $533.1 million—a figure now exceeded by some single evening sales. Several art market analysts noted a renewed sense of confidence across the week, supported by strong material, the momentum following Art Basel Paris, and strategically cautious estimates. Guarantees continue to shape the landscape — with a majority of lots guaranteed before they even hit the auction block —, providing stability but also concentrating the market around top-end works and major collections. However, for the first time in recent years, one could witness many occurrences of bids surpassing price guarantees, and lots being auctioned off to someone else than the guarantor.

The current art market is clearly once more active and re-energizing around rare, museum-level artworks. It remains, however, overall cautious and selective: if established artists continued to achieve strong prices, several high-quality works even in this segment delivered only restrained results. But, quite honestly, this is the best news we could hope for after three years of slump. We are far from where we were in early 2022, and many artists have yet to regain the prices they had reached prior to the slump: if these auction sales were undeniably successful, they remain a reflection of the state of the top-end of the market. It remains to be seen, whether or not they will have a “trickle-down” effect on the rest of the art market…